Climate Change: Scarce Snow, Erratic Rains Threaten Agriculture and Glaciers
CLIMATE & ENVIRONMENT, January 2026 (BNN Web Staff)
Climate change is visibly disrupting weather patterns across India and the world. A recent report by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) indicates that from January to March 2026, temperatures in India and several other regions are likely to be above normal, with rainfall also expected to be erratic.
The current winter season paints a stark picture: minimal snowfall in the mountains and significantly below-average rainfall across most of India. December 2025 recorded record-low snowfall in the western Himalayas. Compounding the concern, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast a 50% chance of El Niño conditions developing during the June-July-August monsoon period. El Niño years typically bring a weaker monsoon and severe heat to India.
Scientists warn that this combination of abnormal heat and rainfall patterns could lead to significant hardships this year, with potential adverse impacts on agricultural production.
The Forecast: Heat and a Weakening Monsoon
According to the latest WMO report, sea surface temperatures remain above average in parts of the Pacific Ocean, while cooler-than-normal conditions in the central and eastern Pacific hint at a La Niña-like state. Simultaneously, the Indian Ocean and North Atlantic are recording above-normal heat. This complex setup increases the probability of above-average temperatures for January-March 2026, which will also influence rainfall patterns.
The potential development of El Niño mid-monsoon is a major worry. “If El Niño conditions develop during the monsoon season, India could experience weaker monsoon rains,” say weather scientists. This could lead to more severe heatwave days. With approximately 51% of India’s cultivable land still dependent on monsoon rains and 47% of the population relying on agriculture for livelihood, this forecast poses a challenge for both policymakers and farmers.
IMD Director General M. Mohapatra cautioned, “It is premature to say definitively in which month El Niño will form. These are early forecasts, and the situation will become clearer in the coming months.”
A Clear Climate Change Signal
Experts state that natural phenomena like La Niña and El Niño are now being clearly influenced by human-induced climate change. The recent years of record-breaking heat, weaker monsoons, and reduced winter rain and snow in the Himalayas are clear signals of this shift.
“Climate change’s impact on weather events is now definitely visible,” says meteorologist Samarjit Choudhary. “This winter, we are seeing a record reduction in rain and snowfall so far. The western disturbances have been extremely weak.”
The Himalayan Crisis: Shrinking Snow and Melting Glaciers
Research indicates a disturbing trend in the Himalayas. A study published on ResearchGate analyzing three decades (1991-2020) of data from the Nubra and Bhagirathi valleys found that snowfall in the Nubra basin decreased by 2 millimeters per decade. While snowfall has declined, rainfall in these valleys has increased.
A report from Himachal Pradesh’s State Centre on Climate Change noted a 14.05% reduction in total snow-covered area in the winter of 2022-23 compared to 2021-22. “The declining snow cover in the mountain environment is a concern, with potentially devastating impacts on hydropower, water sources, drinking water, livestock, forests, farms, and infrastructure,” the report stated.
Microplastics: An Invisible Accelerant
Adding a new layer to the crisis, recent research from the Chinese Academy of Sciences highlights how microplastics are accelerating glacial melt. These tiny plastic particles, smaller than 50 micrometers, settle on ice. Unlike pristine snow which reflects sunlight, the dark particles absorb solar radiation, increasing the glacier’s temperature and causing it to melt faster.
Microplastics have been found in Arctic, Alpine, Tibetan, Andean, and Antarctic ice. A study suggested that microplastics contributed to about 8% of the accelerated melting of glaciers near Tibet’s Nam Co Lake between 1960 and 2000, raising local temperatures by up to 2.5 degrees Celsius. Black carbon is another significant contributor to accelerated melting.
Siddharth Singh, an expert from CSE, emphasized, “Pollution from plastic has become a huge problem. More research is needed to understand the full impact of these small plastic particles on nature.” Alarmingly, microplastics have even been found in fresh snow in Antarctica.
The convergence of these factors—warming temperatures, shifting precipitation, and new pollutants—poses a severe, multi-faceted threat to India’s water security, agriculture, and fragile mountain ecosystems. Jagran
